6 Things the Golden Globes May Tell Us About the Oscars

A Golden Globes win hasn’t always been the greatest predictor of Oscar success (see: Bugsy, 1992; The Revenant, 2016). But last year the Globes provided a fairly accurate guide to who would take home Oscar statuettes seven weeks later—demonstrating that Bohemian Rhapsody’s Rami Malek had more than just an outside chance for best actor, giving a crucial awards-season momentum to Green Book, and presciently establishing a best-actress contest that eventually would come down to Glenn Close (that night’s drama winner) and Olivia Colman (comedy or musical winner) on Oscar night.

This Sunday’s show might have even more relevance than ever before, given that only four weeks will come between the Globes and the Oscars, providing an immediate boost to the winners and leaving the runners-up less time to make up ground. (Oscar voting officially began on Thursday.)

So, for Oscar prognosticators, here are six races to watch closely on Sunday night.

1. Best Picture

This year’s race is unusually wide open, but a win by The Irishman (drama) and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (comedy or musical) would further enhance their stance as the cofavorites going into Oscar night, especially if either scores a win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards on January 19. However, an upset win by Joker or 1917 or even The Two Popes would further muddle the picture. Meanwhile, a strong contender for the Oscars didn’t even make the cut here for technical reasons but still might emerge as the front-runner with a few key wins Sunday. (More below.)

2. Best Actor

This is the most competitive contest in years, and several deserving contenders will be left out when the Oscar nominations are announced on January 13. The three locks would seem to be Leonardo DiCaprio, Adam Driver, and Joaquin Phoenix. That probably leaves seven men competing for the final two slots: Antonio Banderas, Christian Bale, Jonathan Pryce, Eddie Murphy, and Taron Egerton (all nominated for a Globe), and perhaps Robert De Niro and Adam Sandler (who were not). If any of those first five men win, they will probably have solidified their Oscar chances, leaving just one slot open and further dooming the chances of De Niro and Sandler. But if any of the top three favorites win (and my guess is that it will be Driver for drama and DiCaprio for comedy), then it may help narrow the field and provide an opening for either De Niro or Sandler to sneak in.

3. Best Actress

As with Malek last year, Renee Zellweger is nominated in the drama category for what is largely a musical performance and will most likely win in that category, solidifying her position as the Oscar front-runner. But if either Charlize Theron (Bombshell) or Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story) win, then I think one of them will establish herself as the Oscar favorite, setting Theron up for her second win or Johansson for her first.

4. Best Supporting Actress

If Laura Dern, a well-liked Hollywood insider who has built a strong body of work over more than three decades, doesn’t win for Marriage Story, it will be one of the biggest surprises of the night. Meanwhile, Margot Robbie (Bombshell) and Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) can probably start picking out their Oscar-night dresses now. But if Kathy Bates pulls an upset on Sunday, it will enhance her chances of an Oscar nomination and provide a bit of solace to the makers of Richard Jewell, which has been slammed for its factual inaccuracies (not to mention sexism and has turned out to be one of the biggest financial bombs of Clint Eastwood’s career.

5. Best Director

I’m predicting that the big winner in this category won’t be one of Sunday’s nominees. Though Quentin Tarantino or Martin Scorsese or Bong Joon Ho may take home the prize (and thus enter the Oscar race as the front-runner), the building outrage over the continuing lack of female directing nominees—despite strong work by Greta Gerwig (Little Women), Lulu Wang (The Farewell), and Lorene Scafaria (Hustlers)—may create a groundswell of support for Gerwig. I think she will be among the five directing contenders when the Oscar nominees are announced January 13, perhaps at the expense of her partner, Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story).

6. Best Motion Picture, Foreign Language

Because of the quirky rules of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, Parasite is not eligible for best picture, just for foreign language, which it should win easily. But if Bong Joon Ho wins for best director (see above) and best screenplay, then I think Parasite will have improved its chances to become the first foreign-language film ever to win best picture at the Oscars.